From Graham Stephan.
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Ray Dalio’s Full Article Here: https://x.com/RayDalio/status/2022788750388998543
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THE WORLD ORDER WARNING
Ray Dalio argues the global system isn’t approaching change, it’s already undergoing it. His long-standing thesis is that major empires follow predictable cycles. Since his 2022 warning, inflation surged, asset prices spiked, precious metals climbed, and geopolitical tensions intensified. Dalio now says the world order has “broken down,” signaling entry into the final debt cycle where consequences become harder to reverse. The key idea: massive economic shifts rarely hurt those who anticipate them. They hurt those who assume nothing is changing.
THE SIX-STAGE ECONOMIC CYCLE
Dalio outlines a repeatable sequence. A new order begins after crisis resets the system. Growth follows with rising prosperity and innovation. Peak power arrives as wealth and global influence expand, but debt and inequality build beneath the surface. Financial imbalances emerge as debt outpaces income and speculation replaces productivity. Conflict and disorder then rise internally and externally. Finally, a new world order forms through debt restructuring, currency devaluation, or power shifts. The cycle then repeats. Dalio believes the U.S. and global system are late in this progression.
THE FIVE TYPES OF GLOBAL CONFLICT
Before military intervention, competition escalates in subtler ways. Trade conflict use tariffs and supply chain restrictions. Technology conflict center on AI, semiconductors, and energy dominance. Capital conflict use sanctions and financial systems.
THE DEBT CRISIS RISK
Historically, governments facing unsustainable debt inflate it away by printing money, weakening currency value and eroding purchasing power. Dalio warns debt crises unfold gradually, then suddenly. He favors hard assets such as gold in late-cycle environments, noting traditional bonds often fail to offset inflation losses.
THREE POSSIBLE FUTURES
A disorderly decline could involve currency devaluation, market losses, and global power shifts. A managed decline would require bipartisan fiscal reform and international cooperation, preserving stability with slower growth. Renewal, the least likely scenario, would require unity, investment, and productivity breakthroughs. Some suggest AI could boost productivity enough to ease debt pressure, but only if gains are widely shared.
WHAT THIS MEANS FOR INVESTORS
Dalio’s framework suggests preparation rather than panic. Cycles unfold over decades, not months. The broader message is not inevitability of collapse, but adaptation: those who stay flexible and prepared tend to benefit most during periods of global transition.
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