From Graham Stephan.
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WHAT A GOVERNMENT SHUTDOWN MEANS
If Congress doesn’t pass a budget by September 30th, the government legally cannot spend money it hasn’t been authorized to use. That means nonessential federal functions stop, agencies close, and workers are either furloughed or forced to work without pay until a deal is reached.
WHY THIS IS HAPPENING
Congress raised the debt ceiling by trillions of dollars, but now lawmakers are fighting over how to allocate that money. Republicans control both the House and Senate, but they’re split internally, with some demanding cuts to programs like Medicaid and ACA subsidies, while others want a short-term extension. Democrats, meanwhile, want to protect subsidies and social programs. Neither side is budging, which leaves the government stuck.
WHO IS MOST IMPACTED
Active-duty military and federal law enforcement will keep working, but without pay until funding is restored. FEMA, TSA, FDA, and most other federal agencies would face delays or shutdowns. Disaster relief, inspections, and even tax refunds could be affected. Perhaps most critically, the collection of official government data (like jobs numbers and inflation reports) could be delayed, leaving the Federal Reserve without key information ahead of its November 7th meeting.
ECONOMIC IMPACT
Goldman Sachs estimates every week of shutdown subtracts about 0.2% from GDP growth, though activity usually bounces back once the government reopens. For workers living paycheck-to-paycheck, however, even short delays can create major hardships. Confidence in U.S. stability also takes a hit every time this happens, which can ripple through the broader economy.
STOCK MARKET EFFECTS
Historically, shutdowns don’t crash the stock market. Since 1976, there have been 20 shutdowns — the S&P 500 rose in 10 and fell in 10, averaging 0.0% return. The longest shutdown in 2018 lasted 34 days, but stocks rallied 13% during that time. Longer-term, markets have historically posted strong gains in the year after shutdowns, showing that bigger forces like earnings and interest rates matter far more.
THE REAL RISK: U.S. CREDIT RATING
Earlier this year, Moody’s downgraded the U.S. outlook from AAA to Aa1, citing unsustainable debt growth and political dysfunction. Shutdowns highlight that weakness, reducing investor confidence. With debt over $37 trillion and interest payments projected to consume 30% of the budget by 2035, the U.S. can’t afford to look divided and unstable.
LIKELY OUTCOME
Based on history, Congress will probably pass a temporary funding measure at the last possible second, keeping the government open another few weeks while they argue more. A full agreement is unlikely in the short term, since neither party wants to compromise, but a prolonged shutdown benefits no one.
WHAT YOU CAN DO
Shutdowns are mostly political theater, but they carry real risks. The best defense is personal preparation: keep an emergency fund, live below your means, and don’t rely on government decisions for financial security. Your bills never shut down, so it’s smart to protect yourself regardless of what Congress does.
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